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CITIC Securities: It is expected that the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of next year. According to the CITIC Securities Research Report, the global semiconductor and hardware fundamentals are expected to remain weak from the fourth quarter of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, and will resume their upward trend from the second quarter of 2025. Similar to 2024, GenAI is expected to continue to be the core driving force, but industrial opportunities are expected to continue to spread around NVIDIA. At the same time, we should also pay attention to the recovery progress of IT expenditure of European and American enterprises after the US election, the pull of end-side AI and windows10 EOL on consumer electronics and bulk storage chips, and the recovery process of automobile and industrial sectors at the bottom of the cycle. Tariff and trade policies, US macro and inflation data, and GenAI technology progress are expected to continue to be the core influencing variables of the industry. At the sub-sector level, our preference order is: advanced process, AI network (Ethernet equipment and high-speed interface), AI computing chip (ASIC, commercial GPU), AI server, enterprise IT equipment (network equipment, high-end storage, general server), consumer electronics (PC, mobile phone), analog chip, semiconductor equipment, bulk storage chip, mature process and so on.The moderate increase in inflation in the United States consolidated the expectation of interest rate cuts in December. According to the data released by the US Department of Labor on December 11, local time, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.3% in November, an increase of 0.1 percentage point over October. Inflation continues to rise moderately, which is in line with the market's previous judgment and also supports the expectation that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates this month. However, considering the slowdown in inflation and the increase in uncertainties affecting the economy, many analysts believe that the Fed may slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future. (Economic Information Daily)Korean media: South Korean President Yin Xiyue tried to appoint a new defense minister. The East Asia Daily did not explain that the source reported that South Korean President Yin Xiyue tried to appoint a new defense minister, which indicated that Yin Xiyue might resume his job, although he said last week that he would let the ruling party decide how to stabilize future state affairs and his term of office. After making a public speech on Thursday, Yin Xiyue approved the 42 agendas adopted at this week's cabinet meeting. This shows that Yin Xiyue may exercise the presidential power immediately after he hinted in his speech that he had no intention of stepping down.

Full-page observation of People's Daily: Accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with China characteristics.CITIC Jiantou: With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. According to CITIC Jiantou Research Report, since September, heavy meetings have continuously released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, and policies such as lowering the standard, reducing interest rates, lowering the mortgage interest rate, supporting local governments to resolve government affairs risks, issuing special government bonds to supplement core Tier 1 capital, using various tools to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and increasing support and guarantee for key groups have been released one after another. Focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand, the food and beverage industry is expected to usher in an inflection point, and its performance and valuation are expected to continue to improve. The liquor sector is expected to rebound with the boost of the domestic economy and the activation of household consumption, and the business scene and mass consumption boom will return to the consumption upgrading channel, and the profitability of leading liquor companies is expected to accelerate the repair. At present, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is still at a low level, and the long-term investment value is prominent. With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. Continue to be optimistic: 1) The leisure snacks and beverage industries maintain a high degree of prosperity, and new channels bring important incremental opportunities to companies in the industry; 2) Combined with the catering channels that are recovering continuously, it is suggested to pay attention to condiments, beer and catering chain labels with innovative products or reform expectations. At the same time, the current market price of molasses has further dropped from the previous month, which is of great help to yeast enterprises to improve their profit elasticity. 3) The inflection point of the raw milk cycle is approaching, the gift scene is expected to be repaired, and the dairy products continue to upgrade their structure, with high dividends and outstanding cost performance.CICC: Cloud and terminal AI landing In 2025, the localization of semiconductors and components ushered in a new cycle. According to CICC's research report, in 2024, semiconductors and components as a whole were in the upward stage of prosperity. It is expected that inventory, supply and demand will stabilize in 2025, and AI cloud and terminal demand will land, and domestic elements will usher in a new cycle. It is expected that in 2025, the AI ​ ​ replacement tide is expected to accelerate the downstream demand growth of the semiconductor design sector. We are optimistic about the demand expansion of cloud and end-side computing chips driven by AI, and the alpha level of individual stocks is optimistic about the pull of product structure expansion on the performance of related companies, and it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by mergers and acquisitions for some tracks. It is expected that the supply and demand of chip manufacturing will approach a balance in 2025, and the capacity utilization rate will remain at a reasonable level; Among them, the research and development of advanced process manufacturing is expected to continue to advance, driving the development of equipment, parts, materials and design tools.

The UN Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the extensive violation of Syrian sovereignty. On the 12th, UN Secretary-General Guterres issued a statement through spokesman Dujaric, expressing deep concern about the recent extensive violation of Syrian sovereignty and territorial integrity, especially the hundreds of Israeli air strikes against Syria. The statement said that the Disengagement of Forces Agreement signed in 1974 is still valid. Guterres condemned all violations of the agreement and called on all parties to fulfill their relevant obligations, including ending all unauthorized presence in the isolation zone and avoiding any actions that undermine the ceasefire and stability in the Golan Heights. (Xinhua News Agency)Rio Tinto will invest $2.5 billion to develop a new lithium mine in Argentina, and Rio Tinto Group plans to invest $2.5 billion to develop a new lithium mine in Argentina, which is a victory for Argentine President Javier Millay, who is trying to loosen the control of the economy and attract foreign investment. The British company said in an announcement on Thursday that it plans to build a processing plant with an annual output of 60,000 tons of lithium carbonate in Rincon mine. Subject to permission, the construction of the facility will begin in the middle of next year.The Australian stock market fell for the fourth consecutive trading day, led by mining stocks. The Australian stock market fell with the US stock market on Friday, with mining stocks falling the most. The day before, the unemployment rate in Australia fell sharply in November, prompting investors to reduce their bets on interest rate cuts in February. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.7% to 8276.5, the fourth consecutive trading day. The benchmark fell by about 1.6% this week, the biggest weekly decline since early August.